It’s been a week since we voted, and we now have a record number of hung councils. These are councils where no single party can govern alone. Coalition talks are officially under way, and the clock is ticking.
When I spent time in Germany, one thing I couldn’t help noticing is that they take about six months to negotiate a coalition agreement. We get 14 days.
So this week on Let’s Debrief, I sat down with Prof William Gumede to make sense of it all. His central point stayed with me: coalitions are not inherently chaotic. It’s the politicians who make them chaotic.
Prof Gumede pointed out that around the world, coalition government has produced some of the most stable governance of the last hundred years. Germany’s economic miracle was built on coalitions. Brazil’s growth after it democratised happened under coalitions. (Many South Africans think Lula’s Workers’ Party governs alone. It doesn’t. It’s part of a large alliance.)
Closer to home, he called our own Government of National Unity after 1994 the most effective period in our history.
The idea is simple. In a coalition, everyone is watching everyone. Politicians can’t afford to get complacent. Done right, you get better governance, not worse.
So why have our municipal coalitions been such a mess? The Prof’s answer: no rules, and no political maturity.
In 2024, Prof Gumede co-chaired a SALGA process that drew up a coalition framework, including a proposal to extend the 14-day deadline. It was never taken to Parliament. He called it a lost opportunity. Now we have a record number of hung councils, no rules and no law. In his words, it’s a free-for-all.
Interestingly, he isn’t totally against a tight deadline. Short deadlines force parties to apply their minds. Once 27 April 1994 was set as the election date, our own negotiations sped up.
But here’s the catch. Countries like Germany can take six months because they have a professional public service that keeps working while the politicians negotiate. We don’t. If talks dragged on here, he said, bins would not be collected. (I don’t need to be told twice. I’m still recovering from election day.)
Then there’s political maturity. The Prof has taught MPs for over a decade. What strikes him most is how many believe they serve only their party once they’re elected. They don’t. Once you’re elected, you govern for everyone.
He also said something uncomfortable: with so few jobs in the economy, many people now go into politics as an income stream. That’s partly what fuels the competition, and even the violence around these positions.
So far, the red lines in these talks have mostly been about personalities. Think of Herman Mashaba and Helen Zille in Johannesburg.
Prof Gumede’s view is that parties should set real principles before negotiating. For example, they might refuse to work with anyone who wants to tear up the Constitution. They should also be clear about when they’d rather sit on the opposition benches. “A principle is not that the leaders dislike each other,” he said.
But he also explained what’s happening in public. Alongside the talks at the table, there’s a psychological negotiation playing out through statements. Saying “I will never work with them” is high risk, but it can force the other side to offer more just to get you to the table.
For ActionSA, the Prof thinks it’s also about positioning. Its big success this election was winning ANC voters in the townships. (They flipped Sunnyside in Pretoria.) To keep growing, it has to show voters it is not a mini-DA.
My favourite part of the conversation was about how not to negotiate a coalition. Prof Gumede says the biggest mistake parties make is going for positions first: who gets mayor, who gets the speaker’s chair, as if they’re cutting up a pie.
Instead, parties should start by agreeing on three or four common policies. At municipal level that’s actually doable, because local government is about potholes, water and electricity. (Even though, sadly, many of these campaigns were fought as if they were national elections. There is no immigration policy in local government.)
He also made a point that should worry all of us. Many councillors aren’t equipped to oversee budgets for municipalities that run like big businesses.
The Prof believes coalition agreements should be made public and signed in front of citizens. They aren’t legally binding, but a public signing creates a moral contract with voters and with partners.
His comparison: it’s the difference between a shotgun wedding in Vegas and a proper white wedding.
Helen Zille told me at the results centre that she believes in “radical transparency” and that coalition agreements should be published. Between the two of them, I’ll be holding every party to that.
He also says fewer parties is better. Two or three party coalitions are far easier to govern than the 11-party arrangements we’ve seen before.
As for the ANC, it is still the biggest party, and that gives it leverage. There’s been talk that the ANC could threaten the DA nationally if the DA won’t partner with it locally.
Prof Gumede’s warning: if the ANC kicks the DA out of the GNU and brings in MK and the EFF, the markets, society and even its own voters would respond. He believes it would be an electoral bloodbath in 2029.
I asked whether that was alarmist. His answer: “We have to be real.”
Before he left, I made the Prof look into my (imaginary) crystal ball. His predictions:
Johannesburg will end up with the DA and ActionSA.
In eThekwini, MK will swing a deal and get the mayor.
You heard it from the Prof himself.
Meanwhile, the talks are moving. Cogta Minister Velenkosini Hlabisa has issued guidelines to keep coalitions stable and warned that negotiations can’t hold up the setting up of councils. In KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC has confirmed it will talk to MK. And in Joburg, Mashaba has proposed that he and Zille both step aside.
Watch the full conversation on our YouTube channel. There’s so much noise right now, and that’s why we do this.
Tell us: if you could put one condition into your city’s coalition agreement, what would it be?
Let’s Debrief.