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‘Hey ChatGPT. What’s the real matric pass rate?’

Qaanitah Hunter

I was late to writing this newsletter because I had dinner with my family to celebrate my nephew passing matric.

My sister sat at the table looking as exasperated as if she had just received her results, relieved, proud, and still slightly uncertain.

That feels about right.

The release of the matric results is a massive news moment every year. The pass rate becomes a kind of national mirror, reflecting how society is doing and how well, or badly, government efforts to fix the education system are landing.

This year, my nephew was one of around 900 000 pupils who wrote matric. About 88% passed.

But, as always, the debate quickly shifted from how many passed to the quality of that pass rate.

Experts tend to raise three big concerns.

First, many pupils are discouraged from taking subjects like pure mathematics because of the risk of poor performance. Instead, they opt for maths literacy, a choice that critics argue limits their future skills and options. This year, only 34% of pupils wrote maths, while the majority took maths literacy.

Then there is the issue of gateway subjects like physical science and accounting, where marks remain stubbornly low.

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Finally, there is the uncomfortable truth that many pupils drop out in Grade 11. This means the matric pass rate does not always reflect how many children should have been finishing school in the first place.

Then, there’s the 30% pass mark that the minister disputed m. Many say the bar is too low in South Africa and a massive flaw in our education system.

Still, not all assessments are gloomy. Some education experts argue the results show signs of stabilisation, that the system may be finding its footing. The next challenge, they say, will be improving quality at scale.

It is far from a perfect system. But there are green shoots.

One encouraging sign is the increase in pass rates at no fee schools, a reminder that progress, however uneven, is possible.

The real dampener, though, is what comes after matric.

There simply are not enough university places. And the economy offers limited opportunities for young people who cannot access formal tertiary education.

It can feel bleak.

And then perspective arrives.

On Tuesday, Siza Gule dropped by The Debrief Labs, calm and ready, ahead of heading to Harvard later this year. Siza, who attended St John’s College, achieved nine distinctions. Just like that!

We were gobsmacked. We had a sparkler and cupcake ready for him (watch out for that video).

Siza, meanwhile, shrugged and said no one around him was surprised that he got into Harvard or that he wanted to study law.

We also laughed when Mandisa Phakane, who earned six As at Dainfern College, admitted that the only politician she really knew was Cyril, yes, that Cyril.

Mandisa is heading into actuarial science.

When someone asked what actuaries actually do, a fellow matriculant responded, without missing a beat.

“Ask ChatGPT”. The room erupted.

So yes, we can, and should, debate the real meaning of the pass rate, the opportunities facing these young people, and what the numbers truly say about our education system.

But we should also admit something else. We do not yet know what success looks like in an age shaped by artificial intelligence, shifting careers, and entirely new possibilities.

We can be worried about the future and appreciate the efforts of these kids at the same time.

For now, at least, the kids are okay.

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Best,

Q

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