I’ve been tracking what’s happening in the Horn of Africa closely, and something feels different this time. This is a region that has been teetering on the edge of chaos for years, from the war in Sudan, to tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, to foreign powers jockeying for influence along the Red Sea. Now, a new layer of instability has been added, one that could fundamentally reshape the region. What’s unfolding is not looking like a series of isolated events but more like a chessboard coming to life. Powerful players are making calculated moves that are pulling Middle Eastern conflicts into Africa, at a moment when global alliances and even the meaning of sovereignty, are shifting in ways we haven’t seen for a long time.
It began in December, when Israel made a shocking move: recognizing Somaliland as an independent state. As the region was still trying to process that decision, Somalia dropped a bombshell of its own this week, cancelling all major deals with the UAE. From ports and security to defence cooperation, Somalia effectively shut the UAE out, declaring it no longer a friendly partner. Suddenly, this is no longer just about Israel vs Palestine. Somalia, the UAE, Israel, Somaliland, Ethiopia, and Yemen (and others), are now all moving their pieces on the same board.
Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, explained it this way to Africa Explained:
“The possibility of African countries being drawn into Middle East conflicts now gets slightly heightened if Israel pushes through with building a base or gaining some kind of security interest in the region. This brings Africa closer to issues happening in Gaza, broader conflicts within the Red Sea, and Israel’s concern about Iran. There’s definitely another element of proxy wars, which we’ve seen throughout Africa.”
Israel’s decision on December 26 barely registered outside diplomatic circles at first, but it sent shockwaves across Africa and the Arab world. It became the first country in the world to recognize Somaliland as an independent state. If you’re wondering why this matters, you’re not alone. Somaliland isn’t a place most people can point to on a map, yet what happened there could reshape an entire region. Somaliland broke away from Somalia in 1991 after the Somali state collapsed. For more than 30 years, it has functioned like a country, with its own government, elections, and currency. Still, no one recognized it not the UN, not the US, not even its neighbours. For Somaliland, this is the moment they’ve waited decades for. A chance at legitimacy, and a foot in the door of the international system.
But this isn’t really about Somaliland. Israel’s move gives it a foothold in a region that sits at the crossroads of Africa and the Middle East. Through my research, it became clear that Somalia’s diplomatic fightback against the UAE isn’t random. Somali leaders believe the UAE has been quietly backing Israel’s move and that has struck a nerve. The UAE already has massive investments in Somaliland, including control of Berbera Port. From Somalia’s perspective, Israel and the UAE are one and the same and now it’s about Somalia’s sovereignty being on the line.
Dr. Chido Mutangadura-Yeswa, a policy analyst at the Africa Innovation and Research Centre, told me the situation needs to be understood through what Israel stands to gain and why Somalia’s response has been so reactive.
“Somalia’s president has speculated that part of the agreement is for Somaliland to accept Palestinian refugees displaced from Gaza by Israel. Somaliland has denied these allegations, but pro-Palestinian states remain sceptical. There’s also speculation that Israel could establish a military base in Somaliland to engage the Houthis. Israel has denied this, but the speculation itself highlights the security implications of these developments. Houthi rebels have already said they would consider any Israeli military presence in Somaliland a legitimate target. This puts Somalia in the line of fire in a conflict that has nothing to do with them.”
And Somalia isn’t the only country watching closely. Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous nation, is completely landlocked. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has called access to the sea an “existential issue.” Last year, Ethiopia attempted to secure naval access through Somaliland, triggering a regional crisis. That deal stalled but Israel’s recognition changes the math, giving Somaliland greater legitimacy and Ethiopia political cover to try again.
All of this is beginning to resemble an Africa-focused version of the Abraham Accords. As Naidoo explained, the Middle East conflict is now finding new pathways into the continent.
“We could say that Israel is looking to expand the Abraham Accords into Africa. So, the Abraham Accords are set of agreements between Israel and several Arab countries in attempt to normalise relations. So, Sudan is one of the African countries signed up to this and already at this time. Once they were recognized, Somaliland have already said that they are willing to sign up to the Abraham Accords, as well as deepen economic and security ties with Israel, showing the deepening of this connection between these two countries as well.”
Israel’s apparent game plan is becoming clearer:
Somaliland gains international recognition
Israel secures access to the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait
Ethiopia gets a long-sought route to the sea
And the UAE locks in influence over one of the world’s most critical shipping corridors
All these chess moves have made everyone nervous. The African Union, Arab League, and the UN, have all rejected Israel’s decision and reaffirmed Somalia’s territorial integrity. Their fear isn’t just Israel’s recognition of Somaliland but the precedent that it sets. If one UN member can recognize the breakup of another, what stops this from spreading across Africa, or even globally? That fear sits at the heart of this moment. The rules around sovereignty appear to be shifting in real time. What we’re witnessing appears to be a strategic chess game, using Middle Eastern conflicts as a gateway into the Horn of Africa, with control over the Red Sea as the ultimate prize. And once the board is set, it’s rarely the smaller players who get to decide how the game ends.
