We often hear that ISIS is operating in Mozambique, but concrete evidence is rarely provided. The group is frequently used as a boogeyman to spread fear internationally, and in Mozambique, it is no different.
The local insurgent group, Al-Shabaab (unrelated to the Somali group of the same name), has adopted ISIS branding, “waving its flag, pledging allegiance”, and being featured in the ISIS propaganda newsletter Al Naba. But so far, there is no confirmation that ISIS is providing direct funding, strategic guidance, or material support to Al-Shabaab in northern Mozambique.
Africa Risk Specialist Marisa Lourenço told The Debrief Network:
“For ISIS, it's great. It bolsters its image abroad to look like it is growing its presence in Africa. But for Al-Shabaab, it makes it look bigger than what it is, and it makes it look much more organised. It makes Al-Shabaab look like a much greater threat, but it also makes it look like an external problem to Mozambique.”
The latest wave of terror attacks began on July 20, 2025, in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province, displacing over 50,000 people in just two weeks, according to the UN and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF). The hardest-hit town, Chiúre, saw over 42,000 people flee their homes, more than half of them children.
The violence in Cabo Delgado has persisted for nearly eight years, with over 6 100 people killed, according to ACLED. In July, Human Rights Watch reported that Al-Shabaab had “ramped up abductions of children,” using them as fighters, for forced labor, or marriage - a clear war crime under international law.
While the ISIS connection grabs headlines, analysts stress that the insurgency is rooted in local grievances, not international jihad.
Al-Shabaab’s rise is deeply tied to decades of marginalisation and underdevelopment in Cabo Delgado - a province rich in natural resources like rubies, graphite, gold, and offshore gas, but long neglected by the central government.
Lourenço explains:
“The grievances of the local population that feed into Al-Shabaab are not based on LNG. They are very much anti-state, and by anti-state I mean they're very much anti-Frelimo. They see the mineral wealth that is also present in Cabo Delgado and they see that they have not benefited from it. This is manifested into these kinds of grievances that are manipulated by radical Islamist groups.”
Despite pledges of allegiance to ISIS, Al-Shabaab has no clear manifesto, and its calls for an Islamic caliphate only emerged later in its insurgency, suggesting opportunism more than ideological clarity.
At its core, the conflict is not about global jihad, it’s about decades of systemic inequality, government failure, and a lack of meaningful development in northern Mozambique.
“It really is a local, homegrown problem. And above all, it needs a local solution in order to be solved,” says Lourenço.
Until the Frelimo-led government directly confronts the economic and social exclusion in Cabo Delgado, and ensures equitable access to its resource wealth, disenfranchised Mozambicans will remain vulnerable to radicalisation and recruitment.
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