I did not expect to spend this week thinking so much about a war unfolding thousands of kilometres away. But once the US and Israeli attacks on Iran began, I found myself glued to the updates. I was switching between channels, refreshing news sites, scrolling through social media, trying to piece together what was really happening. Every headline felt bigger than the last. Every move seemed to pull in another country.
At first, I told myself this was a Middle East story. Tragic. Destabilising. But geographically distant from Africa. The more I researched, the less true that felt. So, I started asking a simple question: if this conflict escalates, where does Africa feel it first?
When I interviewed analysts, one region kept coming up immediately, the Sahel. Mali. Burkina Faso. Niger. These are countries already battling jihadist insurgencies and already stretched thin. As I dug deeper, I realised that when global powers shift focus and resources, insurgent groups notice. Escalation elsewhere can create opportunity here. Then I turned my attention to the Horn of Africa. Somalia and Djibouti sit along vital Red Sea shipping lanes. Djibouti hosts multiple foreign military bases. I researched how much global trade moves through that corridor, as it links Europe, the Gulf, and Asia. And I found out that any disruption there does not stay local. The Red Sea has already seen vessel attacks in recent years, and so tensions are not hypothetical. Israel also strengthened ties with Somaliland earlier this year, adding another geopolitical layer to a region that is already delicate.
Denis Muniu, Security and Policy Analyst at The Global Centre for Policy & Strategy, explained it to Africa Explained like this:
“Any escalation will bring retaliatory signalling or heightened scrutiny in the Horn of Africa. Fragile states with active insurgencies may experience opportunistic attacks as these military groups may exploit regional instabilities to advance their agenda. Maritime routes along the Red Sea and also the western Indian Ocean could also become flashpoints. As we remember during the previous wars, the Red Sea has become a flashpoint for conflict, even that the Houthi rebels have attacked ships passing through that route.”
The phrase “opportunistic attacks” has stayed with me. Escalation does not always look like tanks crossing borders. Sometimes it looks like armed groups stepping into chaos. But beyond these countries, Sudan worries me most. Sudan’s war is not isolated from Gulf dynamics. The RSF militant group has been widely linked to networks connected to the United Arab Emirates, while Iran backs the Sudanese army. If the confrontation between Iran and the Gulf intensifies, those financial and supply pipelines could shift or close and Sudan’s battlefield could once again be reshaped.
As my research progressed, I shifted from security to diplomacy. I tried to imagine the conversations happening quietly in African capitals right now.
Who do we align with?
How publicly?
And at what cost?
For South Africa, I found this question especially complicated. South Africa is part of BRICS and maintains relations with Iran. At the same time, its economy is deeply tied to Western trade and financial systems. I looked at how quickly the rand moves when markets sense geopolitical risk and it reacts almost instantly.
Dr Ross Harvey, Director of Research & Programmes at Good Governance Africa, put it plainly:
“In an increasingly fragmented world, following neutrality can raise risks for your country and certainly it does that for South Africa. In other words, we would suffer the secondary effects of direct sanctions on Iran and so your trade politics becomes a lot more fluid in this situation and South Africa is at risk.”
And so, I dug into the numbers for you. After striking the world’s largest oil export terminal, Saudi Aramco, Iran has now targeted Fujairah Port in the UAE as well. Fujairah is key because it sits just outside the Strait of Hormuz and handles major oil storage and exports. Any disruption there could quickly impact global oil supplies and prices. And we know that when oil prices spike, investors flee to the dollar. I already know what comes next for many African economies. When oil prices rise because of instability in the Gulf, African import bills rise. When investors pile into the dollar, African currencies weaken. Many countries across the continent carry significant dollar-denominated debt. A stronger dollar means more expensive repayments and higher oil means higher fuel costs. Countries like Kenya, Egypt, Tunisia, Ethiopia, and Ghana are particularly exposed because they rely heavily on fuel imports and are already managing debt pressure. In South Africa, fuel prices are directly tied to global oil prices and the rand–dollar exchange rate. It does not take long for global shocks to filter through to the petrol pump.
Dr Harvey described the paradox clearly:
“So, the craziness of this situation is that those countries like Angola and Nigeria, I mean Nigeria is improving little by little but still not nearly enough. And so, when the dollar rises and the oil price goes up, well that’s kind of good for foreign exchange revenue but it’s extremely costly in respect to maintaining fossil fuel subsidies. And then for countries that are not oil rich they don’t necessarily have any kind of buffer against that. In South Africa, there’s going to be a fuel price hike on Wednesday and that’s because the global oil price is going up because oil supplies are going to be disrupted and so oil may well climb back up to $100 barrel or so and we haven’t seen those kinds of prices sustained anyway since around 2014.”
I kept thinking about what this looks like for an ordinary African just trying to survive. Taxi fares will rise. Food prices edge upward. Fertilizer becomes more expensive for farmers. Governments tighten spending because debt repayments increase. And families who rely on remittances from relatives working in Gulf countries may start worrying about job security and income disruption if instability spreads.
Energy and infrastructure policy expert Lom Nuku Ahlijah told me what African countries need to focus on:
“This conflict is not only about the final missiles but the real impact and the shockwaves that will be affected in Africa. And in African countries we need to work as a continent on ensuring that there are significant buffers as far as storage of essential commodities are concerned, as far as foreign action reserves are concerned and also work significantly on strategic diplomacy to ensure that we have options when challenges of conflicts like this arise.”
As I close this entry, one conclusion feels unavoidable. This war may be unfolding in the Middle East, but its shockwaves travel through oil markets, shipping corridors, fragile security environments, and financial systems that connect directly to Africa. It does not feel distant anymore, it feels interconnected.
Until next time.
